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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.15 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model