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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(:38) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to PIT 13, Center-48-L.McCullough. 82-S.Sims to PIT 14 for 1 yard (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model