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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 13-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to PIT 10, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model