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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 36
Atlanta Falcons 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19
What Actually Happened
(9:30) (No Huddle) 25-T.Allgeier left end to PIT 34 for 2 yards (90-T.Watt).
The Three Options
GO
+1.96 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
KICK
+0.51 EP
- 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 31% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT
-0.33 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
