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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model