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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 4-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.99 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model