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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to PIT 15, Center-48-L.McCullough. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 14. 82-S.Sims to PIT 14 for no gain (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model