Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(12:24) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to PHI 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey to PHI 43 for 20 yards (53-D.Cole; 86-K.Rader).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.54 EP
59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model