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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 8-A.Siposs punts 27 yards to TEN 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.49 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model