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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 18

Tennessee Titans 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.26 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 18, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model