Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(:35) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey ran ob at PHI 26 for 16 yards (53-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.01 EP
50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model