Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(13:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to PHI 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey ran ob at 50 for 27 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.64 EP
71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model