Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

(9:49) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to PHI 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 37 for 25 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.31 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model