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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to PHI 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey to PHI 32 for 6 yards (42-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.92 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model