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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 4

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to TEN 3 for 1 yard (56-M.Rice; 95-D.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +4.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model