Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(10:04) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 28 for 11 yards (56-M.Rice).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.42 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model