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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 19

Tennessee Titans 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 35

What Actually Happened

(5:35) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass short left to 40-D.Hilliard to PHI 9 for 10 yards (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 19, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP