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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 35 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 8-A.Siposs punts 48 yards to TEN 23, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-C.Board to TEN 27 for 4 yards (53-C.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.11 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP