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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end to PHI 32 for 8 yards (97-J.Hargrave).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model