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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 24

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model