Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 57

Washington Commanders 13 – New York Giants 20

(3:42) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to NYG 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model