Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 63

New York Giants 20 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 6-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to WAS 4, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 86-A.Erickson to WAS 20 for 16 yards (85-C.Myarick). Penalty on WAS-47-K.Hudson, Defensive Offside, declined. PENALTY on WAS-37-R.Wildgoose, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at WAS 17. Officially, a return for 13 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.50 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model