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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 49

New York Giants 20 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to WAS 10, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 86-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model