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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 73

Washington Commanders 13 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 10-C.Samuel to WAS 47 for 20 yards (28-C.Flott).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model