Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Giants 20 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to WAS 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 86-A.Erickson to WAS 36 for 12 yards (48-T.Crowder). PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model