Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 62

Washington Commanders 20 – New York Giants 20

(:23) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NYG 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.78 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -1.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model