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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 82-S.Sims to PIT 23 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP