Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 88

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(:30) 11-J.Stout punts 46 yards to PIT 42, Center-46-N.Moore. 82-S.Sims to PIT 48 for 6 yards (14-K.Hamilton). PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 42.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.83 EP
66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model