4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-C.Campbell), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.31 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model