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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model