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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 17 yards to PIT 48, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-27-M.Allen.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 27, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model