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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 17 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 10-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SEA 42, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model