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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 17 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.46 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model