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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP