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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 33-D.Foreman right guard to SEA 3 for 2 yards (30-M.Jackson, 56-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 5, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model