4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Tremble (6-Q.Diggs) [10-U.Nwosu].

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model