Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to CAR 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 28-K.Taylor MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 26. CAR-40-B.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.66 EP
72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model