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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Carolina Panthers 30

What Actually Happened

(:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf to CAR 24 for 25 yards (8-J.Horn; 38-M.Hartsfield).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.98 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model