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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 84

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to CIN 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 84, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model