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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.26 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model