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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 23 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 4-D.Chrisman punts 25 yards to CIN 48, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.31 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model