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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 4 at the 42
Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 23
What Actually Happened
(3:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Cooper.
The Three Options
GO
+1.23 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -0.53 EP
KICK
+0.91 EP
- 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
- 52% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
