Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 40 for 20 yards (43-J.Johnson; 47-C.Hughlett). PENALTY on CIN-17-S.Morgan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.16 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model