Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Taylor ran ob at CIN 27 for 9 yards (37-D.Bell). PENALTY on CIN-33-T.Flowers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model