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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 29 for 6 yards (40-D.Hilliard; 29-J.Thompson). TEN-40-D.Hilliard was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP