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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 10-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.27 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model