Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 33

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to JAX 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 35 for 9 yards (86-K.Rader). Penalty on JAX-54-T.Summers, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.60 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model