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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 33 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 7-Z.Jones (99-R.Weaver).

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.52 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model