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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 4 at the 39
Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7
What Actually Happened
(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 4-D.Chark.
The Three Options
GO
+0.84 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.76 EP
KICK
+0.47 EP
- 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
- 38% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT
+0.09 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
