4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 14-R.Wright punts 35 yards to DET 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model